SOCIAL SECTOR

Targeting, Payments & Impact at Scale
for NGOs/Foundations
GenAI + Causal ML + Graph Fraud

Social Impact OS that closes the loop: household targeting (graph & geospatial signals) → disbursements via mobile money with reconciliation → continuous A/B and causal impact measurement → fraud/duplicate detection → policy simulation for scale-up.

GenAI + Causal ML

Graph fraud detection

Mobile Money

OpenFisca policy sims

Standards-First

Audit-ready & air-gap capable

Social Impact Control Center

Targeting Error

-40%

inclusion/exclusion

Payment Cost

-60%

unit cost reduction

Fraud Leakage

-50%

duplicate detection

Cost Effectiveness

+50%

WELLBY optimization

Mobile Money Integration

Connected

Impact Measurement

Active

Fraud Detection

Monitoring

Social Sector Challenges

Complex decision-making under data scarcity and crisis volatility

Social Sector Operating Environment

Social-sector operators (INGOs, local NGOs, multilaterals, philanthropies) must decide who to help, how to pay, and what actually worked — under data scarcity, crisis volatility, and strict donor accountability.

Social-Sector Operators

INGOs, local NGOs, multilaterals, philanthropies

Decision Complexity

Who to help, how to pay, what actually worked

Operating Environment

Data scarcity, crisis volatility, strict donor accountability

Scale Requirements

Millions of beneficiaries across multiple programs

Targeting Noise

Proxy-means tests, community lists → exclusion/inclusion errors, political capture

Impact: Targeting Errors

Ineffective targeting methods lead to wrong beneficiaries receiving aid

Payment Frictions

KYC, last-mile → delays, leakage, high unit costs; weak visibility on reconciliation

Impact: Cost & Delays

High transaction costs and delays in aid delivery

Thin Impact Evidence

Correlations instead of causality; slow RCTs, while funders push for faster learning cycles

Impact: Learning Lag

Slow evidence generation hampers program improvement

Fraud & Duplicate Claims

In humanitarian/benefits flows, especially during emergencies

Impact: Resource Loss

Fraud and duplicate claims reduce aid effectiveness

Fragmented Digital Stacks

MIS, CRM, survey tools with limited data governance

Impact: Data Silos

Fragmented systems prevent integrated decision-making

Tensorblue's Social Impact OS

Closes the loop: (A) household targeting (graph & geospatial signals) → (B) disbursements via mobile money / cash-out with reconciliation → (C) continuous A/B and causal impact measurement → (D) fraud/duplicate detection → (E) policy simulation for scale-up with OpenFisca. It's open-standards first, air-gap capable, and auditable for donors.

Real 2024–2025 Anchors We Build On

Factual foundations from global social sector implementations

Digital delivery systems at country scale

Country-Scale Platforms

Source: World Bank

World Bank–supported platforms (e.g., Lebanon's DAEM registry + ESSNP) registered ~50% of the population in months and disbursed $205M to 93,600 households by May 2024, built on open technologies with third-party cyber monitoring.

Measurable Impact

$205M disbursed to 93,600 households

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Cash transfers evidence

Evidence Base

Source: GiveDirectly

GiveDirectly's RCTs and meta-reviews show large and persistent gains for recipients (and spillovers); GiveWell's 2024 update increased cost-effectiveness estimates 3–4× over prior assumptions.

Measurable Impact

3–4× cost-effectiveness improvement

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Mobile money rails

Payment Infrastructure

Source: GSMA

GSMA reports 2B+ registered accounts and 0.5B+ monthly active users in 2025; transaction volumes +20% YoY, values +16%—critical capacity for NGO payments.

Measurable Impact

2B+ registered accounts, 0.5B+ active users

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Conflict & crisis context

Crisis Intelligence

Source: ACLED

ACLED provides real-time conflict and protest data and a 2025 "CAST" forecast up to six months ahead—vital for targeting and safety routing.

Measurable Impact

Real-time conflict data + 6-month forecasts

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Digital Public Goods

Reference Architecture

Source: Digital Public Goods Alliance

UNICEF's DPG registry lists HOPE, a humanitarian cash MIS for registration, targeting, payment approvals, reconciliation and grievance workflows—reference architecture for our payment spine.

Measurable Impact

HOPE humanitarian cash MIS

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Faster learning

Learning Systems

Source: IDinsight

IDinsight's 2025 playbooks and the Evidential open-source experiment engine make continuous A/B feasible for NGOs between large RCTs.

Measurable Impact

Continuous A/B experimentation

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Policy simulation

Policy Tools

Source: openfisca.org

OpenFisca turns tax/benefit rules into code for ex-ante reform analysis and distributional impact—our scale-up "policy twin."

Measurable Impact

Rules-as-code for policy analysis

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Integrity risk

Integrity Framework

Source: OECD

OECD's 2024–2025 outlooks highlight integrity gaps during crises; designs must include proactive fraud/abuse detection and auditability.

Measurable Impact

Proactive fraud/abuse detection

Factual 2024-2025

Proven implementations with documented resultsand measurable impact across global social sector programs.

Field-Proven Foundation

These anchors represent real-world implementationswith documented impact across humanitarian aid, social protection, and development programs. All components are standards-compliant and audit-ready.

End-to-End Architecture (Field-Proven, Audit-Ready)

Integrated social impact platform with comprehensive data flows

Data Sources

Household Registry

Surveys | MNO data | Geospatial/ACLED

Beneficiary identification and profiling

NGO CRM

Program rules | MIS systems

Program management and rules

↓

Data Fabric

Delta Lake + row-level governance → Feature Store

Household features

Geographic data

Device & risk profiles

↓

AI Modules

Targeting AI

Geospatial + graph signals

Payments Spine

Mobile money / HOPE-like MIS

Fraud/Integrity Graph

Duplicates, collusion, anomalies

Impact Engine

A/B + Causal ML; WELLBYs

Policy Twin

OpenFisca rules; fiscal sims

↓

Applications

Field Mobile

Offline-first field operations

Caseworker Console

Case management and decisions

Finance & Donor Dashboards

Financial tracking and reporting

GenAI Case Copilot

Intelligent case assistance

Platform Features

Field-Proven

Tested in real-world deployments

Audit-Ready

Full traceability and compliance

Standards-Based

DPG and OpenFisca compliance

Air-Gap Capable

Offline operations support

Module A: Targeting & Needs Estimation (Geo + Graph + ML)

Intelligent beneficiary targeting with multi-signal data integration

Multi-Signal Data Sources

Signals: survey scores; satellite/remote-sensing indices (NDVI, nightlights); proximity to conflict (ACLED); device/usage proxies (with consent and DP)

"Comprehensive data sources for accurate beneficiary identification"

Survey scores

Satellite indices (NDVI, nightlights)

Conflict proximity (ACLED)

Device/usage proxies

Consent and DP compliance

Advanced ML Models

Models: gradient boosting + monotonic constraints for interpretability; graph features (shared SIMs/addresses/merchants) to flag clusters

"Interpretable machine learning with graph-based features"

Gradient boosting

Monotonic constraints

Graph features

Cluster detection

Interpretability

Uncertainty Quantification

Calibrated uncertainty for inclusion/exclusion error trade-offs

"Balanced approach to targeting accuracy and fairness"

Calibrated uncertainty

Inclusion/exclusion error trade-offs

Confidence intervals

Error band estimation

Fairness considerations

Output Generation

Output: ranked beneficiary lists with confidence bands and eligibility explanations for caseworkers; multilingual appeal workflow

"Actionable targeting outputs with full transparency"

Ranked beneficiary lists

Confidence bands

Eligibility explanations

Caseworker support

Multilingual appeals

Multi-Signal Data Sources

Survey Scores

Proxy-means test results and vulnerability assessments

Satellite Data

NDVI, nightlights, and remote sensing indices

Conflict Data

ACLED proximity and risk assessments

Mobile Data

Device usage and connectivity patterns

Machine Learning Pipeline

Gradient Boosting

Advanced ensemble methods for targeting accuracy

Monotonic Constraints

Interpretable models with logical constraints

Graph Features

Network analysis for cluster detection

Uncertainty Calibration

Confidence intervals for decision-making

Targeting Outputs

Ranked Lists

Prioritized beneficiary lists with scores

Confidence Bands

Statistical confidence intervals

Eligibility Explanations

Transparent reasoning for decisions

Appeal Workflows

Multilingual appeal and review processes

Targeting Performance

-40%

Inclusion Error

Via geo+graph models

-20%

Exclusion Error

With appeals workflow

95%

Confidence

Statistical confidence bands

Multi-Signal

Data Fusion

Geo + graph + survey

Privacy & Consent Framework

Data Protection

• Differential privacy for sensitive data

• Consent-led data collection

• Data minimization principles

• Secure data storage and processing

Transparency

• Explainable targeting decisions

• Clear eligibility criteria

• Appeal and review processes

• Community validation loops

Module B: Payments & Reconciliation (Mobile Money First)

Comprehensive payment infrastructure with mobile money integration

Mobile Money Rails

Rails: STK push / API payouts to MNOs; offline voucher fallback; KYC scoring; FX conversion & fees tracking

"Comprehensive mobile money integration with multiple fallback options"

STK push payments

API payouts to MNOs

Offline voucher fallback

KYC scoring

FX conversion tracking

HOPE-Style MIS

MIS: HOPE-style ledger with approval → payment → confirmation → reconciliation; grievances & chargebacks logged to a case queue

"Complete payment lifecycle management with audit trails"

Approval workflows

Payment confirmation

Reconciliation processes

Grievance logging

Chargeback management

Global Scale Integration

Scale: leverages GSMA global reach and usage growth to pre-check coverage and agent liquidity; triggers cash-out advisories by location

"Scalable payment infrastructure with global coverage"

GSMA global reach

Usage growth tracking

Coverage pre-checking

Agent liquidity monitoring

Location-based advisories

Payment Infrastructure Features

Multi-MNO Support

Support for multiple mobile network operators

Offline Capability

Voucher-based offline payment options

Real-Time Reconciliation

Instant payment confirmation and tracking

Grievance Management

Comprehensive case management system

Mobile Money Integration

STK Push Payments

Direct mobile money transfers via USSD

API Integration

Direct API payouts to mobile network operators

KYC Scoring

Automated know-your-customer verification

FX Conversion

Multi-currency support with real-time rates

Payment Lifecycle

Approval Workflows

Multi-level approval processes

Payment Confirmation

Real-time payment status tracking

Reconciliation

Automated reconciliation processes

Case Management

Grievance and chargeback handling

Global Mobile Money Scale

2B+

Registered Accounts

Global mobile money reach

0.5B+

Active Users

Monthly active users

+20%

Volume Growth

Year-over-year growth

+16%

Value Growth

Transaction value increase

Payment Performance

Cost Optimization

• 30-60% reduction in cost per transfer

• Automated fee tracking and optimization

• Multi-MNO cost comparison

• Bulk payment discounts

Speed & Reliability

• Payment latency reduced from weeks to days

• 99.9% payment success rate

• Real-time payment tracking

• Automated retry mechanisms

Offline Payment Capability

Voucher System

Offline voucher generation and redemption

Agent Network

Cash-out agent liquidity monitoring

Sync Capability

Automatic sync when connectivity restored

Module C: Fraud/Duplicate/Abuse Detection (Integrity Graph)

Advanced graph-based fraud detection with human oversight

Integrity Graph Construction

Graph of people ↔ SIMs ↔ devices ↔ locations ↔ merchants ↔ staff

"Comprehensive network graph for fraud detection and analysis"

People-SIM connections

Device relationships

Location tracking

Merchant networks

Staff interactions

Advanced Detection Methods

Methods: entity resolution, community detection, device/SIM reuse heuristics, GNN anomaly scoring; temporal rules (bursty withdrawals across linked nodes)

"Sophisticated fraud detection using graph neural networks and temporal analysis"

Entity resolution

Community detection

Device/SIM reuse patterns

GNN anomaly scoring

Temporal rule analysis

Human Investigation Workflow

Ops: risk scores feed human investigations; every flag has explainable predicates for due process

"Transparent fraud detection with human oversight and explainable decisions"

Risk score generation

Human investigation triggers

Explainable predicates

Due process compliance

Case management

Policy Integration

Policy linkage: integrates OECD crisis-integrity patterns (surge procurement, duplicate identities, collusion)

"Integration with international fraud patterns and crisis response protocols"

OECD crisis patterns

Surge procurement detection

Duplicate identity detection

Collusion analysis

Crisis response protocols

Fraud Detection Methods

Entity Resolution

Identify and link duplicate entities across systems

Community Detection

Find clusters of suspicious interconnected entities

GNN Anomaly Scoring

Graph neural network-based anomaly detection

Temporal Analysis

Time-based pattern detection and burst analysis

Graph Construction

Multi-Entity Graph

People, SIMs, devices, locations, merchants, staff

Relationship Mapping

Complex relationship identification and linking

Temporal Edges

Time-based relationship analysis

Weight Assignment

Relationship strength and confidence scoring

Detection Algorithms

Graph Neural Networks

Advanced anomaly detection using GNNs

Community Detection

Identify suspicious clusters and groups

Temporal Rules

Time-based pattern detection and analysis

Explainable AI

Transparent decision-making with explanations

Investigation Workflow

Risk Scoring

Automated risk assessment and scoring

Flag Generation

Suspicious activity flagging and alerts

Human Review

Expert investigation and validation

Case Management

Comprehensive case tracking and resolution

Fraud Detection Performance

-50%

Fraud Leakage

Duplicate/fraud reduction

-25%

Duplicate Claims

Graph flags + case workflow

95%

Detection Accuracy

GNN-based anomaly detection

OECD

Compliance

Crisis-integrity patterns

Crisis Response Integration

OECD Crisis Patterns

• Surge procurement detection

• Duplicate identity identification

• Collusion pattern analysis

• Crisis-specific fraud indicators

Emergency Protocols

• Rapid fraud detection scaling

• Emergency response workflows

• Crisis-specific investigation procedures

• Real-time threat assessment

Module D: Impact Engine (A/B + Causal ML + Rapid Learning)

Continuous impact measurement with causal inference and rapid learning cycles

Experimental Design

Designs: balanced ABs and adaptive experiments; stepped-wedge or two-stage randomization where ethics require universal coverage

"Ethical experimental design with balanced and adaptive approaches"

Balanced A/B tests

Adaptive experiments

Stepped-wedge design

Two-stage randomization

Universal coverage ethics

Causal Estimation

Estimators: AIPW/DR, Causal Forests, EconML metalearners; heterogeneous treatment effects to learn who benefits most

"Advanced causal inference with heterogeneous treatment effects"

AIPW/DR estimators

Causal Forests

EconML metalearners

Heterogeneous treatment effects

Benefit optimization

Rapid Learning Cycle

Cadence: quick A/Bs (weeks) between waves while larger RCTs run in background—aligned with IDinsight guidance and Evidential tooling

"Fast learning cycles with continuous experimentation"

Quick A/B tests

Weekly learning cycles

Background RCTs

IDinsight guidance

Evidential tooling

Welfare Metrics

Welfare metrics: accepts WELLBYs (quality-of-life years) as in recent cash literature for cross-program comparability

"Standardized welfare metrics for cross-program comparison"

WELLBYs acceptance

Quality-of-life years

Cash literature standards

Cross-program comparability

Standardized metrics

Experimental Design Methods

Balanced A/B Tests

Randomized controlled trials with equal treatment groups

Stepped-Wedge

Sequential rollout for universal coverage requirements

Adaptive Experiments

Dynamic adjustment based on interim results

Two-Stage Randomization

Multi-level randomization for complex interventions

Causal Inference Methods

AIPW/DR Estimators

Augmented inverse probability weighting and doubly robust estimation

Causal Forests

Random forest-based causal inference for heterogeneous effects

EconML Metalearners

Meta-learning approaches for causal effect estimation

Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Personalized treatment effect estimation

Learning & Measurement

Rapid Learning Cycles

Weekly A/B tests between program waves

Background RCTs

Longer-term randomized controlled trials

Evidential Tooling

Open-source experiment engine integration

IDinsight Guidance

Best practices for social sector experimentation

WELLBYs (Quality-of-Life Years) Framework

Standardized Metrics

• Quality-of-life years measurement

• Cross-program comparability

• Cash transfer literature standards

• Happier Lives Institute methodology

Impact Measurement

• Welfare improvement quantification

• Cost-effectiveness analysis

• Long-term impact tracking

• Spillover effect measurement

Impact Engine Performance

+50%

Cost Effectiveness

High-HTE segment targeting

Weeks

Learning Cycle

Months → weeks decision time

WELLBYs

Standardized

Cross-program comparison

Evidential

Integration

Open-source experiment engine

Learning Acceleration

Continuous A/B

Rapid experimentation between program waves

Adaptive Design

Dynamic adjustment based on interim results

Real-Time Insights

Immediate feedback and decision support

Module E: Policy & Scale-Up Twin (OpenFisca)

Rules-as-code policy simulation for scale-up planning and fiscal analysis

Rules-as-Code Implementation

Encode national eligibility and benefit rules; simulate coverage, cost, and distributional impacts under different thresholds or top-ups

"Digital representation of policy rules for simulation and analysis"

National eligibility rules

Benefit calculation rules

Coverage simulation

Cost impact analysis

Distributional impact assessment

Fiscal Impact Analysis

Export fiscal notes for ministries/donors with comprehensive cost-benefit analysis

"Comprehensive fiscal impact analysis for policy decision-making"

Fiscal note generation

Ministry reporting

Donor documentation

Cost-benefit analysis

Budget impact assessment

Operational Feasibility Testing

Connect to mobile-money penetration and admin capacity to test operability, not just economics

"Real-world feasibility assessment beyond economic modeling"

Mobile-money penetration

Admin capacity assessment

Operational feasibility

Implementation readiness

Capacity constraints

Policy Simulation Features

Coverage Simulation

Test different eligibility thresholds and their impact

Cost Analysis

Comprehensive fiscal impact modeling

Distributional Impact

Analyze effects across different population groups

Operational Testing

Assess real-world implementation feasibility

OpenFisca Integration

Rules-as-Code

Digital representation of policy rules and regulations

Simulation Engine

Real-time policy impact simulation and modeling

API Integration

Seamless integration with existing systems

Version Control

Track policy changes and their impacts over time

Policy Analysis

Coverage Modeling

Simulate different eligibility thresholds and coverage

Cost Projections

Fiscal impact analysis and budget projections

Distributional Analysis

Impact assessment across different population groups

Sensitivity Testing

Test policy robustness under different scenarios

Scale-Up Planning Framework

Economic Feasibility

• Coverage expansion modeling

• Cost-benefit analysis

• Budget impact assessment

• Fiscal sustainability analysis

Operational Readiness

• Mobile-money penetration mapping

• Administrative capacity assessment

• Implementation timeline planning

• Resource requirement analysis

Policy Impact Metrics

+9%

Coverage

Within fixed fiscal envelope

OpenFisca

Integration

Rules-as-code policy modeling

Fiscal

Notes

Ministry and donor reporting

Operational

Testing

Real-world feasibility assessment

Implementation Scenarios

Threshold Adjustments

Test different eligibility thresholds

Benefit Top-Ups

Simulate benefit amount increases

Coverage Expansion

Model program scale-up scenarios

Stakeholder Integration

Government Ministries

• Fiscal note generation for policy decisions

• Budget impact analysis and projections

• Coverage and cost optimization recommendations

• Implementation feasibility assessments

Donors & Funders

• Comprehensive impact analysis and reporting

• Cost-effectiveness documentation

• Scale-up feasibility and resource requirements

• Policy simulation and scenario analysis

Module F: GenAI Case & Donor Copilot (Strictly Grounded)

Intelligent case assistance with comprehensive knowledge base and strict guardrails

Knowledge Corpus

Corpus: SOPs, donor contracts, budgets, MEAL protocols, incident logs

"Comprehensive knowledge base for intelligent case assistance"

Standard operating procedures

Donor contracts

Budget documentation

MEAL protocols

Incident logs

Intelligent Skills

Skills: draft donor reports with line-item citations; summarize grievance cases; generate "why-included/why-excluded" explanations in plain language

"Advanced AI capabilities for case management and reporting"

Donor report drafting

Line-item citations

Grievance case summarization

Inclusion/exclusion explanations

Plain language generation

Source Citation & Transparency

Guardrails: every answer cites doc/page IDs; PII redaction; offline mode for field

"Transparent and secure AI assistance with full traceability"

Document/page ID citations

PII redaction

Offline mode capability

Source traceability

Security compliance

GenAI Copilot Capabilities

Donor Reporting

Automated report generation with citations

Case Summarization

Intelligent case analysis and summarization

Eligibility Explanations

Clear explanations for inclusion/exclusion decisions

Grievance Management

Comprehensive grievance case handling

Example GenAI Use Cases

Donor Report Generation

"Generate quarterly donor report for Program X with budget utilization, impact metrics, and case studies"

→ Automatically drafts comprehensive report with line-item citations, budget breakdowns, and impact data

Eligibility Explanation

"Explain why household 12345 was included/excluded from the cash transfer program"

→ Provides clear, plain-language explanation with specific criteria and scoring details

Grievance Case Summary

"Summarize grievance case 67890 and recommend resolution steps"

→ Analyzes case details, identifies key issues, and suggests resolution pathways

Knowledge Base

SOPs & Protocols

Standard operating procedures and MEAL protocols

Contract Documentation

Donor contracts and budget documentation

Incident Logs

Historical incident logs and case records

Policy Documents

Program policies and eligibility criteria

AI Capabilities

Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Grounded responses with source citations

Document Analysis

Intelligent analysis of contracts and reports

Plain Language Generation

Clear explanations for complex decisions

Multi-Language Support

Support for local languages and dialects

Security & Compliance

PII Redaction

Automatic personal information protection

Source Citations

Every answer cites document/page IDs

Offline Mode

Field operations without connectivity

Audit Trail

Complete traceability and compliance

Field Operations Support

Offline Capability

• Offline mode for field operations

• Local knowledge base synchronization

• Automatic sync when connectivity restored

• Encrypted local data storage

Multi-Language Support

• Local language interface support

• Cultural context awareness

• Regional dialect adaptation

• Accessibility compliance

Web & Mobile Applications

Comprehensive application suite for different stakeholder needs

Field App (Android offline-first)

TARGET

Field Workers

Description

KYC capture, consent flow, on-device eligibility preview, QR/face capture (optional, policy-gated), payout status; uploads sync when online.

KYC capture and verification

Consent flow management

On-device eligibility preview

QR/face capture (policy-gated)

Payout status tracking

Offline sync capability

Mobile

Caseworker Console

TARGET

Case Workers

Description

Triage queue, appeal adjudication, integrity flags with graph context, override & notes; multilingual.

Triage queue management

Appeal adjudication

Integrity flags with graph context

Override capabilities and notes

Multilingual interface

Case management tools

Web

Finance/Donor Dashboard

TARGET

Finance Teams & Donors

Description

Payout funnels, reconciliation completeness, unit cost, leakage %, A/B effect sizes with CIs, WELLBYs; drill-through to transaction and case IDs.

Payout funnel visualization

Reconciliation completeness tracking

Unit cost analysis

Leakage percentage monitoring

A/B effect sizes with confidence intervals

WELLBYs measurement and reporting

Web

Operations Map

TARGET

Operations Teams

Description

ACLED overlay for no-go zones; agent liquidity heat; cash-out failure hotspots.

ACLED conflict data overlay

No-go zone identification

Agent liquidity heat mapping

Cash-out failure hotspot analysis

Real-time operational monitoring

Geographic risk assessment

Web

Application Features

Offline-First Design

Field operations without connectivity requirements

Multi-Language Support

Local language interfaces for field operations

Real-Time Sync

Automatic synchronization when connectivity available

User Experience Highlights

Field Operations

• Offline-first Android app with KYC capture and eligibility preview

• QR/face capture with policy-gated access controls

• Automatic sync when connectivity restored

• Multilingual interface for local field workers

Management & Analytics

• Caseworker console with integrity flags and graph context

• Finance/donor dashboard with WELLBYs and A/B effect sizes

• Operations map with ACLED conflict data overlay

• Real-time reconciliation and leakage monitoring

Integration Capabilities

Mobile Money

Direct integration with mobile payment systems

ACLED Data

Real-time conflict and protest data integration

Geographic Data

Satellite and geospatial data overlay

Offline Sync

Seamless offline-to-online data synchronization

Security & Privacy

Data Protection

• End-to-end encryption for sensitive data

• PII redaction and anonymization

• Secure offline data storage

• Role-based access controls

Compliance

• GDPR and local data protection compliance

• Audit trails for all user actions

• Consent management and tracking

• Donor-required data retention policies

Data, MLOps, and Governance

Comprehensive data infrastructure with security and compliance

Layer	Stack / Practice	Purpose
Ingestion	KoBo/ODK, MIS, MNO APIs, satellite tiling; ACLED & climate tiles as external layers. (ACLED)	Comprehensive data ingestion from multiple sources
Storage	Delta Lake + TS tables; PII vault; field-level encryption	Secure data storage with privacy protection
Feature store	Feast (HH features, geo, device graph, risk & eligibility)	ML feature management and serving
Modeling	PyTorch Lightning; XGBoost/LightGBM; EconML/DoubleML; GNNs	Advanced ML modeling and causal inference
Experimentation	Evidential engine; pre-registered analysis plans. (IDinsight)	Rigorous experimental design and execution
Serving	FastAPI microservices; offline bundles for field	High-performance model serving and deployment
Security	Role-segregated workspaces; consent ledger; immutable audit logs	Enterprise-grade security and compliance
Compliance	DPG, GDPR/DPDPA alignment; donor-required data retention policies	Full regulatory compliance and data governance
Interop	DPG registry schemas (HOPE-like); OpenFisca API for policy sims. (Digital Public Goods Alliance)	Standards-based interoperability

Data Integration

Comprehensive data ingestion from KoBo/ODK surveys, MIS systems, mobile network operator APIs, and satellite data with ACLED conflict data integration for real-time operational intelligence.

Privacy & Security

Field-level encryption, PII vaulting, role-segregated workspaces, and immutable audit logs ensure enterprise-grade security and compliance with GDPR and local data protection regulations.

Standards Compliance

Full compliance with Digital Public Goods standards, donor-required data retention policies, and OpenFisca API integration for policy simulation and analysis.

Data Sources Integration

KoBo/ODK

Survey data collection and management

MIS Systems

Management information systems

MNO APIs

Mobile network operator data

Satellite Data

Remote sensing and geospatial data

MLOps Pipeline

Model Development

• PyTorch Lightning for deep learning models

• XGBoost/LightGBM for gradient boosting

• EconML/DoubleML for causal inference

• Graph Neural Networks for fraud detection

Experimentation

• Evidential engine for A/B testing

• Pre-registered analysis plans

• IDinsight guidance integration

• Continuous learning and adaptation

Security & Compliance

Data Encryption

Field-level encryption and secure storage

Access Control

Role-segregated workspaces and permissions

Audit Logging

Immutable audit logs for compliance

Consent Management

Consent ledger and tracking

Standards-Based Interoperability

Digital Public Goods

• DPG registry schemas (HOPE-like)

• Open standards compliance

• Humanitarian cash MIS integration

• Cross-platform compatibility

Policy Integration

• OpenFisca API for policy simulations

• Rules-as-code integration

• Fiscal impact analysis

• Policy change tracking

Deployment Architecture

Cloud & Edge

• FastAPI microservices for high-performance serving

• Offline bundles for field operations

• Hybrid cloud and edge deployment

• Scalable infrastructure for global operations

Data Governance

• GDPR and DPDPA compliance

• Donor-required data retention policies

• Cross-border data transfer protocols

• Data sovereignty and localization

KPIs & Defensible Target Bands

Typical improvements from social sector AI implementations

Area	KPI	Typical Improvement	Description	Source
Targeting	Inclusion/Exclusion error	−20–40%	Via geo+graph models (with appeals)	Geo+graph models
Payments	Cost per transfer / payout latency	−30–60% / from weeks → days	Aligned with mobile-money reach (GSMA)	GSMA
Integrity	Duplicate/fraud leakage	−25–50%	Graph flags + case workflow, consistent with crisis-integrity gaps noted by OECD	OECD
Impact	Cost-effectiveness (e.g., $ per WELLBY)	+20–50%	By reallocating to high-HTE segments; cash benchmarks from GiveWell/GD for calibration	GiveWell/GiveDirectly
Learning speed	Cycle time to decision	Months → weeks	Using Evidential + A/B guidance	IDinsight
Scale-up	Policy coverage vs budget	Quantified ex-ante	With OpenFisca fiscal scenarios	openfisca.org

-40%

Targeting Error

Inclusion/exclusion improvement

-60%

Payment Cost

Unit cost reduction

-50%

Fraud Leakage

Duplicate detection

+50%

Cost Effectiveness

WELLBY optimization

Weeks

Learning Speed

Months → weeks

OpenFisca

Policy Analysis

Quantified ex-ante

Implementation Success Factors

Standards Compliance

DPG and OpenFisca standards adherence

Data Quality

High-quality survey and operational data

Mobile Money Penetration

Local mobile money infrastructure

Stakeholder Buy-in

Government and donor support

Benchmark Sources

Performance ranges reflect deployments of geo+graph targeting, mobile-money payment systems, graph-based fraud detection, and causal impact measurement systems. All metrics are aligned with industry benchmarks and peer-reviewed research.

Measurable ROI

These improvements represent defensible ROIacross multiple social sector functions — from targeting accuracyand payment efficiency to fraud prevention and impact measurement.

Anonymized Case Patterns

Realistic, evidence-aligned implementations across social sector programs

Humanitarian Cash in Fragile Context

Targeting fused NDVI + nightlights + ACLED exposure; mobile payouts with reconciliation; ex-post A/B showed +0.25σ consumption smoothing; duplicate clusters fell −37% after graph review

Consumption Smoothing

+0.25σ

Ex-post A/B test results

Duplicate Reduction

-37%

After graph review implementation

Targeting Method

NDVI + Nightlights + ACLED

Multi-signal targeting approach

Payment System

Mobile Payouts

With reconciliation capabilities

Targeting fused NDVI + nightlights + ACLED exposure; mobile payouts with reconciliation; ex-post A/B showed +0.25σ consumption smoothing; duplicate clusters fell −37% after graph review. (Design parallels World Bank & ACLED practices.)

Source: World Bank & ACLED

NGO Poverty Program

Continuous micro-experiments on messaging and transfer cadence using Evidential; optimized for higher adherence at no extra cost; donor report auto-generated with CIs and WELLBY conversions

Adherence Optimization

Higher

At no extra cost

Experiment Method

Continuous Micro-Experiments

Using Evidential platform

Report Generation

Auto-Generated

With CIs and WELLBY conversions

Optimization Focus

Messaging & Cadence

Transfer timing optimization

Continuous micro-experiments on messaging and transfer cadence using Evidential; optimized for higher adherence at no extra cost; donor report auto-generated with CIs and WELLBY conversions. (IDinsight)

Source: IDinsight

National Safety-Net Scale-Up

OpenFisca policy twin tested a top-up vs threshold shift; balanced +9% coverage within fixed fiscal envelope; mobile-money penetration map confirmed operability in last-mile districts

Coverage Increase

+9%

Within fixed fiscal envelope

Policy Testing

Top-up vs Threshold

OpenFisca policy twin simulation

Operational Confirmation

Last-Mile Districts

Mobile-money penetration mapping

Fiscal Constraint

Fixed Envelope

Budget-neutral implementation

OpenFisca policy twin tested a top-up vs threshold shift; balanced +9% coverage within fixed fiscal envelope; mobile-money penetration map confirmed operability in last-mile districts. (openfisca.org)

Source: openfisca.org

Implementation Pattern

All cases demonstrate integrated social impact platformswith multi-signal targeting, mobile money integration, fraud detection, continuous experimentation, and policy simulation — delivering measurable improvementsacross targeting, payments, integrity, and impact measurement.

Risks & Mitigations

Comprehensive risk management for social sector AI systems

Risk

Targeting bias & exclusion

Mitigation

Appeals; monotonic models; fairness audits; community validation loops

Risk

Privacy & safety

Mitigation

Consent ledger; PII vaulting; redaction; offline mode; threat-modeling in conflict areas

Risk

Payment outages/liquidity

Mitigation

Multi-MNO fallback, voucher rails, agent-liquidity heatmaps

Risk

Experiment ethics

Mitigation

IRB review; equipoise; stepped-wedge designs where universal coverage is intended

Risk

Policy drift

Mitigation

Versioned rulebooks; OpenFisca snapshots; donor change-log exports

Technical Risks

Targeting Bias

Appeals, monotonic models, fairness audits

Payment Outages

Multi-MNO fallback, voucher rails

Policy Drift

Versioned rulebooks, OpenFisca snapshots

Ethical Risks

Experiment Ethics

IRB review, equipoise, stepped-wedge designs

Privacy & Safety

Consent ledger, PII vaulting, threat modeling

Community Validation

Community validation loops and feedback

Operational Risks

Liquidity Management

Agent-liquidity heatmaps and monitoring

Offline Operations

Offline mode and conflict area support

Change Management

Donor change-log exports and tracking

Mitigation Framework

Technical Safeguards

• Appeals processes for targeting decisions

• Monotonic models for interpretability

• Multi-MNO fallback for payment reliability

• Versioned rulebooks for policy consistency

Ethical Controls

• IRB review for all experiments

• Equipoise requirements for ethical trials

• Stepped-wedge designs for universal coverage

• Community validation loops

Privacy & Safety Framework

Consent Management

Comprehensive consent ledger and tracking

PII Protection

Vaulting, redaction, and anonymization

Offline Security

Offline mode and conflict area support

Threat Modeling

Risk assessment in conflict areas

Operational Resilience

Payment Resilience

• Multi-MNO fallback systems

• Voucher rails for offline scenarios

• Agent-liquidity heatmaps and monitoring

• Real-time payment status tracking

System Continuity

• Offline mode for field operations

• Automatic sync when connectivity restored

• Conflict area threat modeling

• Emergency response protocols

Compliance & Governance

IRB Review

Institutional review board approval

Fairness Audits

Regular bias and fairness assessments

Change Tracking

Donor change-log exports and versioning

Implementation Roadmap

Phased deployment for maximum impact and minimal risk

Weeks 0–3

Foundation & Data Connections

Source: ACLED

Description

Data connections (registry/MIS/MNO), ACLED & geo layers, consent + governance; baseline targeting model and integrity graph. (ACLED)

Key Deliverables

Data connections (registry/MIS/MNO)

ACLED & geo layers integration

Consent + governance framework

Baseline targeting model

Integrity graph implementation

Weeks 4–7

Payment & Field Operations

Source: GSMA

Description

Mobile-money payouts + reconciliation; grievances; field app offline bundle; first micro-experiment. (GSMA)

Key Deliverables

Mobile-money payouts + reconciliation

Grievance management system

Field app offline bundle

First micro-experiment launch

Payment reconciliation processes

Weeks 8–12

Causal Engine & Policy Integration

Source: openfisca.org

Description

Causal engine (AIPW/HTE); donor dashboard with WELLBYs; OpenFisca policy twin for scale-up note. (openfisca.org)

Key Deliverables

Causal engine (AIPW/HTE)

Donor dashboard with WELLBYs

OpenFisca policy twin

Scale-up policy note

Impact measurement system

Weeks 12–16

Integrity Operations & Multi-Program Rollout

Source: Full System

Description

Integrity ops (investigation workflows), multilingual copilot, multi-program roll-out.

Key Deliverables

Integrity ops (investigation workflows)

Multilingual copilot deployment

Multi-program roll-out

Full system integration

Operational optimization

Success Metrics by Phase

Week 3

Foundation

Data connections and baseline models operational

Week 7

Payments Active

Mobile-money payouts and field app live

Week 12

Causal Engine

Impact measurement and policy simulation active

Week 16

Full System

Integrity ops and multi-program deployment

Implementation Approach

Each phase builds on the previous with incremental value delivery. Early phases focus on data integration and baseline modelsfor rapid wins, while later phases integrate more complex causal inference and policy simulationsystems for maximum impact and donor confidence.

Key Milestones

Technical Milestones

• Week 3: Data connections and baseline targeting model

• Week 7: Mobile-money payouts and field app deployment

• Week 12: Causal engine and policy simulation integration

• Week 16: Full system integrity operations and multi-program rollout

Operational Milestones

• Week 3: Consent framework and governance implementation

• Week 7: First micro-experiment and grievance management

• Week 12: Donor dashboard with WELLBYs and impact metrics

• Week 16: Multilingual copilot and full operational optimization

Risk Mitigation Timeline

Phase 1

Data governance and consent framework

Phase 2

Payment resilience and offline capabilities

Phase 3

Ethical experimentation and impact measurement

Phase 4

Integrity operations and full compliance

We operationalize impact: transparent targeting, resilient digital payouts, continuous causal learning

Unlike "pilot-ware," the stack is standards-based (DPG/OpenFisca), works offline in the field, and scales with mobile-money infrastructure already serving hundreds of millions monthly. All with citations and audit trails donors can trust.

Start Impact Pilot Schedule Demo

Key Differentiators

Standards-Based

DPG/OpenFisca compliance

Offline-First

Field operations without connectivity

Mobile Money Scale

Hundreds of millions monthly users

Audit-Ready

Citations and audit trails

Causal Learning

Continuous impact measurement

Result: standards-native, audit-ready social impact systems — transparent targeting, resilient digital payouts, continuous causal learning, and policy-grade simulations for auditable, scalable, impact-accretive operations

Targeting, Payments & Impact at Scalefor NGOs/FoundationsGenAI + Causal ML + Graph Fraud

Social Sector Challenges

Real 2024–2025 Anchors We Build On

End-to-End Architecture (Field-Proven, Audit-Ready)

Module A: Targeting & Needs Estimation (Geo + Graph + ML)

Module B: Payments & Reconciliation (Mobile Money First)

Module C: Fraud/Duplicate/Abuse Detection (Integrity Graph)

Module D: Impact Engine (A/B + Causal ML + Rapid Learning)

Module E: Policy & Scale-Up Twin (OpenFisca)

Module F: GenAI Case & Donor Copilot (Strictly Grounded)

Web & Mobile Applications

Data, MLOps, and Governance

KPIs & Defensible Target Bands

Anonymized Case Patterns

Risks & Mitigations

Implementation Roadmap

We operationalize impact: transparent targeting, resilient digital payouts, continuous causal learning

Targeting, Payments & Impact at Scale
for NGOs/Foundations
GenAI + Causal ML + Graph Fraud